How to read a target return

Every investment platform shows you a number. The skill is knowing what that number is made of.

Target ≠ forecast ≠ guarantee

A guarantee is a legal promise to pay — almost nothing in investing is guaranteed, and anyone using that word about returns should end the conversation. A forecast is a prediction with a probability attached. A target — what serious platforms (including Tervolt) publish — is the output of an operating model under stated assumptions. It says: if utilization, prices, and costs land where the model assumes, this is what the math produces.

The honest way to read "5–15% p.a." is therefore: the model's good scenario produces ~15%, its cautious scenario ~5%, and below the range sits the real possibility of less, zero, or loss — because reality is not obliged to match anyone's assumptions.

Why higher targets mean higher risk — mechanically, not rhetorically

A higher target isn't generosity; it's compensation. It usually means longer capital lock-up, more exposure to utilization risk, later payout priority, or a newer facility with less operating history. When two offers differ by 5 percentage points, that gap is the price of the extra risk you're carrying. If you can't identify which risk you're being paid for, assume you haven't found it yet.

The three questions that make a target meaningful

1. What assumptions produce the top of the range? (Utilization %, price per GPU-hour, power cost.)
2. What has to go wrong to hit the bottom — or below?
3. When and how is the return actually paid — monthly, quarterly, at exit?

A platform that answers in numbers respects you. One that answers in adjectives is marketing.

Educational content — not investment advice. Capital at risk.